A record obtained through an access-to-information request reveals Memorial University’s enrolment forecasts developed in fall 2025.
The projections were developed to support budget planning using judgmental forecasting in consultation with the Registrar’s Office and the Centre for Institutional Analysis and Planning.
The forecasts anticipated a six percent decline in undergraduate enrolment in fall 2026, followed by stable enrolment through fall 2030, and a 14 percent decline in graduate enrolment in fall 2026, followed by annual declines of five percent through fall 2030.
Undergraduate enrolment is projected to decline from 12,496 in 2025 to 11,746 in 2026 and remain at that level through fall 2030. Graduate enrolment is projected to decline from 3,913 in 2025 to 2,741 in 2030, a decrease of about 30 percent.
Overall, total enrolment is projected to decline from 16,409 students in 2025 to 14,487 in 2030, a decrease of 1,922 students, or approximately 11.7 percent.
Memorial noted that undergraduate enrolment had declined fairly consistently by 15 percent from fall 2010 to fall 2025.
In developing the forecasts, Memorial considered the impact of changes to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) policies, which had accelerated the decline in undergraduate enrolment in recent years, as well as enrolment information by grade from the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador’s Department of Education and Early Childhood Development.
The department’s 2025-2026 statistics suggested that intermediate and secondary school enrolment may decline in the short term. Population projections from the Department of Finance also suggested that the intermediate and secondary school-aged population would decrease from 2025 to 2030.
The province’s 25- to 34-year-old population was expected to grow during this period, and Memorial believed it could maintain stable undergraduate enrolment by recruiting more adult learners and other Canadian students.
Memorial noted that graduate enrolment declined sharply by 17 percent from fall 2023 to fall 2025, after growing from fall 2010 to fall 2023. The university attributed the decline to recent changes to IRCC policies and noted that a more limited graduate fellowship budget in fall 2025 also constrained graduate enrolment.
Memorial said the IRCC changes disproportionately affected graduate enrolment, as international students accounted for about 52 percent of total graduate enrolment as recently as fall 2023.
In fall 2025, Memorial anticipated the possibility that both international graduate enrolment and enrolment in research-intensive programs, as a proportion of total enrolment, might decline further over the medium term.
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Matt Barter is a graduate of the Humanities and Social Sciences Faculty at Memorial University of Newfoundland, holding a degree in Political Science with a minor in Sociology. He enjoys reading thought-provoking articles, taking walks in nature, and volunteering in the community.
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